Ajax Pickering Real Estate Blog

Anne Howland, CanWest News Service

Home prices across Canada are ripe for a fall, says one bank economist.

Adrienne Warren, senior economist with Scotia Economics, said a bustling real estate market has led to housing in many regions of the country being overvalued, increasing the risk of prices dipping in the longer-term.

“The fundamentals underpinning Canada’s real estate market are still quite good,” said Warren in Scotia Economics’ latest Real Estate Trends.

“Unemployment is low, immigration is high and apartment vacancy rates are tight. There is little evidence of overbuilding or speculative buying. The industry also has relatively little direct exposure to subprime lending, with these loans accounting for only about five per cent of domestic mortgages in recent years, compared with about 20 per cent in the United States.

“Yet there is little doubt that current trends are unsustainable,” added Warren. “Affordability is becoming increasingly stretched for many would-be buyers after almost a decade of rising real estate prices. More recently, economic risks have increased in the wake of the intensifying financial market turmoil stemming from the U.S. subprime mortgage problems.”

RBC Economics reported that real estate affordability in Canada in the second quarter worsened in every housing type, every province and every major city.

“In the second quarter, Canada’s housing affordability experienced one of the largest and most broadly based quarterly deteriorations since the mid-1990s,” said Derek Holt, assistant chief economist with RBC. “Higher real estate prices, mortgage rates, utilities and property taxes all combined to drive the country-wide deterioration.”

The Scotia Economics report noted that, in all 15 cities examined with the exception of St. John’s, N.L., house prices are above their long-term trend, with big regional variations, from one per cent above trend in Ottawa, to 25 per cent in Edmonton.

The average deviation at mid-year was roughly eight per cent, the report said.

“Some deviation from underlying trends is to be expected at the late stage of a real estate boom,” said Warren. “At the peak of the prior two housing cycles in 1976 and 1989, national home prices were 12 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively, above their long-term trend. The smaller degree of overshooting this time around, and the sustainability of price appreciation, may reflect in part an undervaluation of Canadian real estate prices in the late 1990s and into the early part of this decade.”

The Canadian Real Estate Association said last month that the national average price of a home sold in July was $311,495, a 12.6 per cent increase from a year earlier.

Warren estimated that average real home prices in the United States carried a near-record 14 per cent premium in 2005, but have since slipped below trend due to increased supply of housing and weakening demand.

In Canada, she added, most major markets are still sellers’ territory, where prices rise faster than inflation. Cities enjoying the biggest price increases have the tightest supply-demand conditions, including Regina and Saskatoon.

“The further domestic home prices climb above underlying economic fundamentals, the greater the risk of an eventual correction,” said Warren.

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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information - 416-388-1960

Rakshande Italia, National Post; CanWest News Service

So, you want to invest in real estate and get rich fast? You’re living in an infomercial. Experts say the secret to successful real estate investing is research, research, research. Review your moves, get good advice and look for clues in sources such as the new Canadian census data. The payoff is two-fold: Ongoing cash flow and capital appreciation.

Here are 10 steps to becoming a real estate mini-mogul:

1. Evaluate your existing exposure. “People who already own a house should make sure they evaluate the percentage of real estate exposure already in their investment portfolio and then decide if they want to invest more,” says BMO economist Michael Gregory. “Evaluate whether the benefits you earn from tax breaks on your second house are worth the risks associated with investing more.”

2. Identify what is it you really want from the property. “Do you want to make a quick $30,000 in a very short period of time or would you be happy with earning $800 to $1,000 a month for the rest of your life?” asks Ozzie Jurock, a Vancouver-based real estate author and TV personality. Jurock says investing in smaller towns is a good bet because even if the property does not substantially appreciate, one can always be assured of a fixed income for life through manageable rents.

3. Ignore national statistics. Focus on the numbers and trends that directly affect your market. Check if population growth, average income and job creation are faster than the provincial average, say experts. Also key is whether a major transportation improvement is occurring nearby. And don’t let a single booming industry (such as automotive) or one high-growth sector (such as oil) influence long-term investing decisions.

Is the area affordable?

4. Is the area’s affordability index in the hot zone (between 25 and 39 per cent)? RBC puts up a free affordability index chart on its website that can help investors. Experts say you don’t want the property to be too expensive or too cheap: Too cheap and the renters become buyers; too expensive and property values may stall.

5. Buyer beware is still the golden rule says Maria Britto, former president of the Brampton Board of Trade. Keep on top of real estate rules by contacting the governing bodies in the industry, such as the Canadian Real Estate Association, says Britto. For example, recent rule changes mean agents now need to sign contracts with buyers in an arrangement similar to what they do with sellers.

6. Use an experienced real estate agent. Once you get your research done, use a real estate agent who specializes in buying and selling houses for real estate investing.

7. Start small. For the first-time investor, Britto recommends trying a free-hold townhome (which doesn’t have maintenance fees). “These are not only affordable, but there’s always a good supply and demand for them and they can give you an affordable income,” she says. This holds true in bigger cities such as Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Calgary, where immigrant populations are high. New immigrants prefer to rent for their first few years in the country and they tend to choose locations close to transportation systems, malls and grocery stores.

8. Is the location forward looking? Don Campbell, author of 97 Tips for Canadian Real Estate Investors, says it is crucial to determine whether the provincial and local political leadership creates a “growth atmosphere.” One way to tell is by looking at whether the region’s economic development office is helpful. If they are difficult to deal with, you can assume they will be the same in their dealings with potential employers looking to move to the area, says Campbell. Also, check to see whether the area’s infrastructure — sewers, commercial and industrial space — is being built to handle future growth.

Are baby boomers moving in?

9. Is the area attractive to baby boomers? Check whether there are lifestyle options such as parks, recreation or water facilities nearby. The 2006 Statistics Canada census data shows that places such as British Columbia’s Okanagan region has seen a significant increase in population since the last census as baby boomers look for attractive retirement locations.

10. Think suburban. The 2006 census report talks of the suburbanization of Canada. Larger lots and lower real estate prices are drawing more people to the suburbs and bedroom communities that are mushrooming across the country. For example, Chestermere, outside Calgary, has grown by 148 per cent.

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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information - 416-388-1960

Make sure your house is a perfect 10 before the ‘For Sale’ sign goes up. A little effort can help ensure the best price in the shortest amount of time.

Vancouver Sun

If you’re thinking about putting your home on the market, you need to do everything you can to make sure it’s a perfect “10″ before the “For Sale” sign goes up!

Today’s homebuyers are busy people, who are rarely interested in spending the time or money to carry out major repairs or improvements when they move in. To help you get the best price and sell your home as fast as possible, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has a number of tips on how you can get your house ready to sell:

First, stop thinking of your house as the home you love, and start thinking about it as a product that’s about to enter a highly competitive market. Prospective homebuyers aren’t looking to buy your home; they’re looking for a place they can call their own. So take a long, objective look at your home’s strengths and flaws, and identify any areas where a little effort or elbow grease could make a big difference.

A good place to start is with your home’s curb appeal. The curb is where buyers make their first impressions, so make sure the impression they get is a good one. Remove any clutter in your yard. Repair cracked or uneven driveways and walkways. Make sure your lawn and flowerbeds are well tended. And ensure your windows, walls and doors are clean and freshly painted.

Next, check the roof, chimney and exterior walls. If any repairs are required, carry them out yourself, or hire a qualified contractor to do the work for you.

Inside, make sure potential buyers are greeted with a clean, clutter-free and well-lit interior, preferably with a fresh coat of paint on the walls and trim. Eliminate any unpleasant odours, and make sure all the lights are turned on and that all doors and windows open and shut properly.

Thoroughly clean all appliances, sinks, tubs and toilets, and give all your fixtures a good shine. Repair any leaks or drips, and clean the cabinets, mirrors, switch plates and cupboard handles.

Keep furniture and family memorabilia to a minimum to help people imagine their own belongings in the space and ensure an easy flow of traffic .

Make sure your foundation and basement are structurally sound, and free of cracks or water seepage. If you use the basement as a catch-all for storage, try to clear it of as much clutter as possible, or at least organize your things as well as you can.

In the garage, carport or shed, get rid of any broken or useless items. If there are any oil stains on the floor, remove them with a strong cleaning solution.

Last but not least, if you have an agent, then the single best thing you can do to help make the sale is to leave when the home is being shown. This will help prospective buyers imagine the house as their new home - not yours!

For more information or a free copy of the “About Your House” fact sheet Getting Your House Ready to Sell, or other fact sheets on buying, maintaining or renovating your home, call CMHC at 1 800 668-2642 or visit our Website at www.cmhc.ca.

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Contact the Jeffrey Team for more information - 416-388-1960