Tag Archive for chief economist

Housing starts jump in March

CBC News

Canada’s house construction jumped in March helped mostly by an increase in rural building.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said 188,800 units were added in March on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 183,700 units in February 2011.

“Housing starts moved higher in March mostly because of increases in rural starts,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Urban starts saw little change as the increase in Ontario’s multiples segment was off-set by a decrease in British Columbia’s multiples and a decrease in single housing starts in the Prairies.”

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 0.4 per cent to 163,500 units in March, while urban multiple starts were up by 6.6 per cent in the month to 101,400 units. Single urban starts decreased by 8.3 per cent to 62,100 units.

March’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 23.4 per cent in British Columbia and by 19.3 per cent in the Prairies. Urban starts increased by 13.6 per cent in Ontario, by 11.5 per cent in the Atlantic region and by 8.6 per cent in Québec.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 25,300 units in March.

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2011 Off To A Positive Start In Resale Market

PropertyWire.ca

Building on the momentum from the end of 2010, 2011 started off strongly in the Canadian property resale market, according to the newest report released by CREA.

This spike in numbers does not come as any major surprise, given the introduction of the new mortgage lending restrictions. Buyers, it seems, are hurrying to beat the deadline for when these measures will be fully enacted- in spring 2011.

Reaching levels not seen since last spring, across the country, seasonally adjusted home sales activity went up by 4.5 % in January 2011 over December’s numbers.  Vancouver and Toronto topped the list for seasonally adjusted sales activity.

Additionally, monthly gains were realized in more than half of all local Canadian markets in January. According to the report,”National sales activity has improved steadily since last summer, and now stands almost 25 per cent above the low point reached in July 2010.”

“We anticipated the recent announcement of tighter mortgage regulations, which will come into effect this March, would pull forward sales activity into the first quarter of 2011, particularly in some of Canada’s more expensive housing markets,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “The sharp rise in sales activity in Toronto following the announcement provides early evidence confirming this,” said Klump.

It will take some time before the longer term impact of the latest mortgage regulations on the housing market can be known,” said Georges Pahud, CREA’s President. “For that reason, further action shouldn’t be taken until the impact can be measured. In the meantime, if last year can be used as any guide, sales activity may heat up further as we get closer to the date on which tighter mortgage regulations come into effect, especially in some of Canada’s pricier markets. That said, local housing market trends often diverge from national trends, so buyers and sellers should consult their local REALTOR® to understand how the market is shaping up where they live.”

Balance is the word best associated with the current sales environment. In January, the housing market began to see signs of improved stability- balanced out by matched numbers of sales activity numbers and levels of inventory.

At the lowest levels seen since last March, the seasonally adjusted number of months of inventory remained stable at 5.5 months at the end of January, nationally- which is another indicator of balance.

In terms of average prices, upwards of two-thirds of local markets reported gains  from this time last year. The national average price for homes sold in January 2011 was $343,675. This price is similar to those seen in the three months prior, but signals a rise of  4.5 % compared to January 2010.

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Property sales rise ahead of mortgage changes

By Sharon Singleton, QMI Agency

Canadian sales of existing homes rose 4.5% in January, hitting their highest level since April last year, as buyers rushed to beat tighter mortgage regulations set to come into effect next month, according to Canadian Real Estate Association figures.

Vancouver and Toronto led the growth, with half of all local markets reporting seasonally adjusted gains in the month, CREA said. Sales activity improved over the second half of last year and is now 25% above its low in July, it said.

“We anticipated the recent announcement of tighter mortgage regulations, which will come into effect this March, would pull forward sales activity into the first quarter of 2011, particularly in some of Canada’s more expensive housing markets,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist. “The sharp rise in sales activity in Toronto following the announcement provides early evidence confirming this,” said Klump.

CREA warned the government not to take any further action until the longer-term impact of the most recent changes is fully known.

Ottawa announced in January that it would tighten mortgage-lending rules for the second time in a year to stop borrowers taking on more debt than they can afford. The government is reducing the maximum amortisation period on mortgages backed by government insurance to 30 years, from 35 years, which makes monthly payments higher.

The tightening is expected to primarily hit first-time homebuyers, or those with less available for a downpayment.

BMO mortgage expert Laura Parsons said the changes are a good thing.

“People are like deer in the headlights when these things happen, but they need to be properly informed,” she said. “This is a good thing, it saves them money.”

Reducing the amortisation period by five years to 30 years would save about $53,000 in interest payments over the life of the mortgage, she said.

Actual new listings through the MLS System posted their biggest month-over-month increase since 2007 in January, with more than double the listings from the previous month, CREA said.

As sales activity and new supply have risen in tandem, the national market remains balanced, CREA said. The national sale-to-new listings ratio stood at 55.7% in January, little changed from the previous two months.

Parsons said BMO expects the market to remain balanced throughout 2011.

“According to our survey, 61% of homeowners are confident their homes will hold their current values throughout the year,” she said.

The national average price was little changed from the previous three months at $343,675, an increase of 4.5% from January last year, CREA said.

The January year-over-year gain was distorted by a jump in the number of multi-million dollar homes sold in a couple of areas in Greater Vancouver, it said.

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