Tag Archive for Housing starts

Laurin Jeffrey | April 23, 2011
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Housing starts jump in March

CBC News

Canada’s house construction jumped in March helped mostly by an increase in rural building.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said 188,800 units were added in March on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 183,700 units in February 2011.

“Housing starts moved higher in March mostly because of increases in rural starts,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Urban starts saw little change as the increase in Ontario’s multiples segment was off-set by a decrease in British Columbia’s multiples and a decrease in single housing starts in the Prairies.”

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 0.4 per cent to 163,500 units in March, while urban multiple starts were up by 6.6 per cent in the month to 101,400 units. Single urban starts decreased by 8.3 per cent to 62,100 units.

March’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 23.4 per cent in British Columbia and by 19.3 per cent in the Prairies. Urban starts increased by 13.6 per cent in Ontario, by 11.5 per cent in the Atlantic region and by 8.6 per cent in Québec.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 25,300 units in March.

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Laurin Jeffrey | March 1, 2011
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CMHC Forecasts Return to Stability in 2011

PropertyWire.ca

There is news that demographic fundamentals will be a guiding force in 2011 for housing activity, according to the Q1 2011 forecast released by CMHC.

After moving somewhat lower during the end of 2010, CMHC predicts that housing starts will start to stabilize in 2011 and continue through to 2012.

According to the forecast, “Housing starts will be in the range of 157,300 to 192,900 units in 2011, with a point forecast of 177,600 units. In 2012, housing starts will be in the range of 154,600 to 211,200 units, with a point forecast of 183,800 units.”

“Modest economic growth will continue to push employment levels higher this year and next. This, in conjunction with relatively low mortgage rates, will continue to support demand for new homes. Housing starts will remain in line with long term demographic fundamentals over the course of 2011 and 2012,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC

CMHC predicts that existing home sales will be in the area of 398,500 to 485,500 units for 2011- with a point forecast of 441,500 units with expectation that this will increase through to 2012. The point forecast for 2012 is 462,900 units; they expect MLS sales will move from 406,300 to 519,700.

There is expectation that the market, although achieving some balance in 2011, will remain in the sellers’ market range. Building on MLS price gains that happened at the end of 2010, as a further indication of a return to balance, they feel that MLS price will keep on a growth curve consistent with “economy wide” inflation that will carry through 2011-2012.

Highlights from across the country include a Western bucking of the rest of the national trend, where in B.C, there is expectation that starts will increase by 1.6%. Alberta will hold the status quo.

In Ontario, the improving economy will provide momentum for an upswing in housing starts, but CMHC feels that they will not be realized until 2012.

New Brunswick is expected to be the weakest of the Atlantic Provinces.

Most of the rest of the country is expecting to see a decline in housing starts, but there is promise of return to growth towards 2012.

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Category: Ajax Real Estate, Buying Real Estate, General Real Estate, New Homes, Pickering Real Estate, Selling Real Estate | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,
Laurin Jeffrey | March 25, 2010
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Home prices to hit record this year

Canadian home prices will reach a record high this year, but those expecting the sky-high house price increases of the past decade to continue will be disappointed

By Eric Lam, Financial Post

Canadian home prices will reach a record high this year, but those expecting the sky-high house price increases of the past decade to continue will be disappointed, a Scotiabank real estate expert said Tuesday.

“It’s time to reset price expectations for the Canadian housing market,” Adrienne Warren, senior economist with Scotiabank, said at a real estate conference in downtown Toronto. “This was an exceptional decade for pricing.”

Looking at the past 50 years, prices on average rose between 2% and 2.5% each decade. But prices rose an average of 5.2% between 2000 and 2009, she said, which led to the current elevated pricing conditions.

“Some of that reflects a very strong global economy, a commodity boom, unemployment rates falling, all very positive for housing,” Ms. Warren said.

She added that some very lean years between 1990 and 1999 meant there was an element of “catching up” going on over the last decade. Average prices increases between 1990 and 2009 was slightly less than 2%, she said.

As for this year, Ms. Warren still anticipates a strong spring sales market as consumers try to take advantage of rock-bottom interest rates before an expected rate hike by the Bank of Canada in the summer.

Overall, she forecasts 10% growth in sales volumes to 510,000 transactions for 2010, just shy of record levels in 2007. Average prices will increase about 8% to a record $345,000, and housing starts will rise to 190,000 units, she said.

Starting midway through 2010 the market will likely start to slow down, a trend that will carry through to 2011 and beyond, she said.

“Next year we’re looking for somewhat lower sales volumes, somewhat lower prices, and lower housing starts,” Ms. Warren said.

Further ahead, the mortgage market will steady as there will be fewer new products to attract consumers. Also, home ownership levels will peak and start to trend downward beyond 2020 as the 40-64 Baby Boomer set move into retirement homes or condos, she said.

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